Blogcabin California

July 1, 2008

Does He or Doesn’t He? A Puzzled Blogosphere Awaits Word

Posted by Christopher Gilbertson at 9:06 pm .
Filed under: Miscellany

Obama on Same-Sex Marriage   [Ramesh Ponnuru]

He says he opposes it. But he also thinks that a constitutional amendment in California to block it is “divisive and discriminatory.” I think the only way to square these positions would be for Obama to say that he opposes same-sex marriage as a religious or moral matter, but supports it as public policy. He is, that is, “personally opposed.” But I don’t know whether Obama actually takes that position, or is simply muddled. (The other possibility, of course, is that I am wrong and there is some other way to make these views consistent.)

 

One possibility is that Obama opposes same-sex marriage as a matter of policy, but also thinks it would be unwise for Californians to amend their state constitution in order to prohibit it retroactively and nullify marriages that have already taken place (which could easily be construed as “divisive and discriminatory”). This isn’t totally illogical: There are lots of people who dislike the rights conferred by, say, the Second or Fourth Amendments, but think as a matter of prudence it’s a bad idea to amend constitutions frequently unless there’s an exceptionally compelling reason to do so. Granted, it doesn’t seem very likely this is what Obama believes (and this line of argument carries less weight in the context of the California constitution, which is amended all the time and is already a mess anyway), but his statements on the issue, while in tension, aren’t necessarily irreoncilable.

Josh Patashnik 

 

Puzzling Obama on SSM:

Today we learned that Barack Obama opposes the proposed amendment to the California constitution defining marriage as the union of a man and a woman. In a letter to a gay civil rights group in San Francisco, Obama said he rejects “the divisive and discriminatory efforts to amend the California Constitution” and similar efforts in other states.

At the same time, Obama has repeatedly said that while he supports civil unions for gay couples he believes marriage is between a man and a woman. At a Democratic debate last August sponsored by the gay-themed cable station LOGO, he had this exchange with Human Rights Campaign Executive Director Joe Solmonese:

MR. SOLMONESE: So to follow up on your point about the state issue, if you were back in the Illinois legislature where you served and the issue of civil marriage came before you, how would you have voted on that?

SEN. OBAMA: Well, I — you know, my view is that we should try to disentangle what has historically been the issue of the word “marriage,” which has religious connotations to some people, from the civil rights that are given to couples, in terms of hospital visitation, in terms of whether or not they can transfer property or any of the other — Social Security benefits and so forth. So it depends on how the bill would’ve come up.

I would’ve supported and would continue to support a civil union that provides all the benefits that are available for a legally sanctioned marriage.

Though the answer was a bit muddled, and seems calculated to ease the blow of his opposition to gay marriage in front of a gay audience, I read this to mean that Obama would oppose a bill in a state legislature to permit same-sex couples to marry but would support a bill to let these same couples enter civil unions giving them equivalent rights under state and federal law. This has become the dominant view of the Democratic Party. (If in fact he personally opposes gay marriage but supports it as a matter of public policy, his campaign hasn’t said so.)

Assuming that Obama’s opposition to gay marriage is not simply “personal,” but is also a matter of public policy, I find Obama’s current position perplexing. He opposes a referendum that would simply enshrine his purported public-policy view that marriage is between a man and a woman because, he says, it is “discriminatory.”

But how is the proposed amendment any more “discriminatory” than his own position? His position is that marriage is between a man and woman; the proposed amendment says that marriage is “between a man and a woman.” (Full text: “Only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California.”) The proposed California amendment is narrower than the other proposed state constitutional amendments, many of which have explicitly bitten off much more than gay marriage.

Is there any way to reconcile opposition to gay marriage with opposition to the California amendment? I can think of three ways to reconcile these views, none of which is cited by the Obama campaign.

First, I suppose one could oppose writing the definition into the state constitution as opposed to state statutes. This would leave the state legislature and governor with the flexibility and the power to make the call at a later time. But the problem with that is that the state supreme court effectively wrote the new definition into the state constitution, removing this very power from the state legislature and the governor. If you oppose gay marriage on policy grounds, there is now no way to implement your view except to constitutionalize it by amendment. The state supreme court has left you no choice. And in California, because it’s so easy to amend the state constitution, you’re free to vote for a repeal at a later date if you change your mind on this issue. And you don’t have to worry in 2008 that you are helping to set up a supermajority barrier to the possibility that you will change your position in the future.

Second, since gay marriages are a fait accompli for the next few months, even if you oppose them you might not want to reverse the interim marriages (which is a possible effect of passing the amendment) or, more abstractly, “take away rights.” These would be incredibly generous reasons for a real opponent of gay marriage to oppose the California amendment since the number of interim marriages will be small in absolute terms, the marriages exist only by mandate of four judges, they are entered with full knowledge and notice that they may be nullified in a short time, and the cost of losing the referendum will be many more such marriages into the indefinite future. But if Obama is such an anti-SSM altruist, he does not give this as a reason for opposing the amendment.

Third, a gay-marriage opponent who supports civil unions (like Obama) could vote against the California amendment on the ground that it might also be interpreted to eliminate the state’s domestic partnership system. This might be an unacceptably high cost if you oppose gay marriage, but don’t oppose it very strongly, and think the costs of ending the domestic partnership system would be high. I think it unlikely the amendment will be interpreted so broadly by the California courts if it passes, but the risk is above zero. However, once again, Obama does not offer this as a reason to oppose the amendment.

So what’s really going on? I think there are two things happening. First, I don’t think Obama really opposes gay marriage deep down and I suspect he does see the exclusion of gay couples as a kind of discrimination. He has never been able to explain his reasons for opposing gay marriage — which is very revealing for a man who’s otherwise unusually thoughtful. He just says, basically, I oppose gay marriage “because I say so.” So calling the amendment discriminatory and divisive may be candor squeaking through. Second, and probably more importantly, this is an instance where politics necessitates cognitive dissonance. Gays and those who support gay equality are a critical constituency in the Democratic Party. Obama can’t keep the gay-friendly base happy and support the amendment, which is rightly seen by them as involving huge stakes for the gay-marriage movement. But at the same time he has calculated that he can’t come out for gay marriage as a matter of public policy because that might mean losing the election.

Don’t get me wrong, I strongly oppose the California amendment and intend to contribute to its defeat. And on one level, I am very gratified by Obama’s opposition. It might actually help sway some of his socially conservative black and Latino supporters, who will vote in large numbers in California in November. But then, I support gay marriage. If I opposed it, I’d probably be either mystified or angered.

Obama’s explanation for why he opposes gay marriage and opposes the proposed California amendment banning it can’t be squared as a matter of logic. It’s a matter of politics, which says something about how much things have changed in a short time. We’ve gone from the Democratic presidential nominee in 2004 opposing gay marriage and supporting state constitutional amendments to ban it (as Kerry did, even where gay marriage existed, in Massachusetts); to a Democratic nominee who says he opposes gay marriage, but who’s uncharacteristically at a loss to explain himself, and who opposes the only way to prevent it from becoming a reality in a state with 40 million people; to, I predict, a nominee in 2012 or 2016 who will say he or she personally favors gay marriage but says the president has no role in the decision because this is an issue that should be left to the states.

The Last Desparate Days of Gary Bauer

Posted by Kevin Norte at 11:06 am .
Filed under: Miscellany

THE FOLLOWING POST IS BY CHRISTOPHER GILBERTSON: 

Conventional wisdom holds that the California Supreme Court’s recent decision to strike down the Golden State’s Defense of Marriage Act was a triumph for the left, representing a giant leap toward its ultimate goal of establishing same-sex marriage nationwide.

 

Actually, it was a triumph for all fair-minded Americans, which be definition, would exclude Gary Bauer. But for all the left’s euphoria, it’s the right that should feel encouraged. Because, considering past precedent and current trends, the ruling may backfire and end up offering substantial electoral advantages to conservative candidates.We love it when Gary self-medicates.

First, some background.

In 2003, two courts issued high-profile decisions that would loom large on Election Day 2004. The United States Supreme Court’s decision striking down a Texas statute outlawing sodomy and the Massachusetts Supreme Court’s ruling legalizing same-sex marriage catapulted same-sex unions to the forefront of the election campaign.

While the homosexual rights movement hailed these two court victories, traditional marriage activists were spurred to pursue their only available recourse: state marriage protection amendments.
Massive state and national get-out-the-vote campaigns educated voters about the rulings’ implications and, thus, the need to protect marriage at the state constitutional level. These efforts proved fruitful, as all 11 state marriage amendments passed, with an average approval vote of 70 percent.

The marriage amendments had a buoying effect for President Bush and other conservative candidates, pushing to the polls many voters who otherwise might not have voted. In Ohio, for instance, a huge marriage amendment campaign registered 54,500 new voters, and thousands more Ohioans who were registered but rarely voted cast their votes for the marriage amendment. On the strength of the marriage initiative, Bush won in the battleground state, as did 13 of the 17 Republican candidates running for Congress there.  

A little-discussed academic paper titled “Did Gay Marriage Elect George W. Bush?” — presented at the 2005 State Politics and Policy Conference in East Lansing, Mich. — illuminates precisely how much of an impact the issue had. Using national and state-level survey data, a team of university professors employed logistical regression analysis and made some fascinating discoveries. For instance, the direct priming effects of the marriage amendments led to a 9 percent increase in the probability that a voter would pull the lever for Bush, even after accounting for constant partisanship, religion, and other salient issues (Iraq, economy and terrorism) and demographic factors. The increased probability of voting for Bush grew to 20 percent among voters who felt strongly about the marriage issue.

The issue had a particularly strong effect in key battleground states. The authors conclude that the marriage amendments “aided Bush in states where it was on the ballot. Other issues may have kept Bush even with [Democrat John F.] Kerry in Ohio, but gay marriage may very well have put Bush over the top in the state.”

These data help explain why many same-sex marriage proponents, from Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein to the Log Cabin Republicans, conceded that the issue was a net plus for the GOP in 2004.
But same-sex unions began affecting elections before 2004. In July 2000, Vermont became the first state to enact civil unions. Later that year — helped by the “take back Vermont” movement, started partly in response to the new law — Republicans captured the state House for the first time in 14 years and nearly took back control of the state Senate.

 

But will same-sex marriage matter in 2008? Most pundits doubt, in light of a continuing war and economic issues topping lists of voter concerns, that same-sex marriage will carry the same resonance for voters now that it did in 2004.

Polling, however, suggests otherwise. Only two states (Florida and California) will vote on marriage protection amendments in November. But a 2007 Quinnipiac poll found that homosexuality remains important among voters in Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. No candidate has won the presidency since 1960 without carrying at least two of these states. In all three, a much higher percentage of voters (34 percent to 10 percent in Ohio, 28 percent to 10 percent in Florida and 28 percent to 11 percent in Pennsylvania) said they would be “less likely,” rather than “more likely,” to vote for a candidate who received an endorsement from a gay rights group. Importantly, these margins diminished only slightly among independents in each state.

What’s more, according to a recent Gallup poll, the traditional marriage faction benefits from much greater intensity of belief. While just 2 percent of those who favor same-sex marriage define themselves as single-issue voters on marriage, one in four traditional marriage supporters say they will vote only for candidates who share their view on the issue. And a Pew poll published in June found that “55 percent of strong opponents of gay marriage say it is a very important issue, compared with 29 percent of strong supporters of gay marriage.”

The Pew poll found that 41 percent of Republicans say same-sex marriage will be “very important” to their vote this year, which is remarkable considering that 39 percent felt as strongly in 2004.

These are the voters who will be motivated by the California ruling. I asked Alliance Defense Fund senior counsel Glen Lavy, who argued against same-sex marriage in the California case, to put the ruling in context. He said the decision is “far worse” than the 2003 Massachusetts Supreme Court decision, because Massachusetts had no statutory law defining marriage at the time. In California, however, four judges rewrote a law passed only eight years earlier by a significant majority of California voters.

Since June 17, hundreds of same-sex couples have flocked to California, married and returned to their home states, the vast majority of which have laws that prohibit such marriages. But with no legal way to invalidate these weddings, chaos may ensue, creating an environment ripe for an electoral backlash on Election Day.

Former presidential candidate Gary Bauer is president of American Values and chairman of the Campaign for Working Families.

 

 

June 26, 2008

Gay Republicans Applaud Right to Bare Arms But Disappointed That The Court Did Not Guaranty The Right To Bare Chests

Posted by Christopher Gilbertson at 12:18 pm .
Filed under: Miscellany

Washington) Log Cabin Republicans applauded the U.S. Supreme Court’s 5-4 ruling Thursday striking down Washington, DC’s 32-year-old ban on hand guns. 

The court ruled Thursday that Americans have a constitutional right to keep guns in their homes for self-defense. It was the justices’ first major pronouncement on gun control in U.S. history. 

The court had not conclusively interpreted the Second Amendment since its ratification in 1791. The amendment reads: “A well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms, shall not be infringed.” 

The basic issue for the justices was whether the amendment protects an individual’s right to own guns no matter what, or whether that right is somehow tied to service in a state militia. 

Writing for the majority, Justice Antonin Scalia said that an individual right to bear arms is supported by “the historical narrative” both before and after the Second Amendment was adopted. 

The Constitution does not permit “the absolute prohibition of handguns held and used for self-defense in the home,” Scalia said. The court also struck down Washington’s requirement that firearms be equipped with trigger locks or kept disassembled, but left intact the licensing of guns. 

“This is an excellent decision for all Americans-gay and straight,” said Log Cabin Republicans President Patrick Sammon.  

“Unfortunately, too many LGBT Americans still face the threat of anti-gay violence. 

“We’re happy the Supreme Court has affirmed the right for us to protect ourselves and our families from harm.  Self defense is not a privilege, it’s a right,” said Sammon.   

Following the ruling the NRA said it will file lawsuits in San Francisco, Chicago and several of its suburbs challenging handgun restrictions there based on Thursday’s outcome. 

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), a leading gun control advocate in Congress, criticized the ruling. “I believe the people of this great country will be less safe because of it,” she said. 

The capital’s gun law was among the nation’s strictest.

June 20, 2008

Taking the pulse of gay rights in the courts

Posted by Terry at 1:01 pm .
Filed under: Miscellany

Five years ago this month, the Supreme Court struck down Texas’ consensual-sodomy law in a prosecution involving two men who were having sex in a private home. Justice Kennedy’s majority opinion in Lawrence v. Texas contained some high-flying rhetoric insisting that lesbian and gay Americans are ordinary citizens entitled to respectful treatment. Justice Scalia’s outraged dissent charged the court with reading the entire “homosexual agenda” into the Constitution and, further, predicted that the majority’s analysis spelled the end of all morals-based regulation of sexual conduct. At risk, Scalia warned, were laws against fornication, bestiality, adultery, bigamy, incest, obscenity, prostitution, and masturbation(!).

http://www.slate.com/id/2193935/

June 13, 2008

Sign A Petition to Encourage National Equal Rights for Same-Sex Marriage

Posted by Mark Martin at 2:48 pm .
Filed under: Miscellany

Here is a link to a petition which you can sign to encourage both Senators Obama and McCain to consider marriage equality on a national level:

 http://www.thepetitionsite.com/takeaction/301498927?z00m=15418992

 Good Luck!

 

June 11, 2008

Dems FAIL to Change DADT

Posted by Terry at 8:58 pm .
Filed under: Miscellany, National Politics, Gay Rights, What Do You Think?

What have the democrats been doing about Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell?  Thanks to The Advocate…

Advocate.com

Dems Decry DADT But Fail To Change It
Democrats say the nation should be ashamed of its ban on gays serving openly in the military. So what have the Democrats done about it? Nothing, really.

It is time for Republicans to lead the charge and end the ban.

May 30, 2008

Schwarzenegger backs June start of gay marriages

Posted by Terry at 7:50 pm .
Filed under: Miscellany

The governor appeared Friday at a school in Pacoima to announce the release of $463 million in bond money to pay for new construction at charter schools, where he responded to a reporter’s question about gay marriage. 

 

“The Supreme Court has decided it is unconstitutional to stop people from getting married, same-sex marriage, and therefore we move forward now and let people get married and have same-sex marriage in California,” Schwarzenegger said. “I think that we should move forward, and I hope they do, and I think that what I’ve heard, by June 16th or so, the offices will open up and will make it available.” 

 

Voters approved a state law in 2000 defining marriage as “between a man and a woman,” and Schwarzenegger said Friday he always believed the law should stand until the courts or voters overturned it. He previously explained that he personally believes marriage is “between a man and a woman” but that he does not believe one’s personal belief should be imposed on others. 

 

Conservatives are pursuing a stay that would block gay marriages from taking effect in California until voters have the chance in November to decide on a constitutional amendment that would ban gay marriage. Schwarzenegger opposes the stay and the constitutional amendment. 

 

http://www.sacbee.com/static/weblogs/capitolalertlatest/012903.html 

 

“California Log Cabin supports OUR Governor and we thank him for supporting fairness for All Americans”, says Terry Hamilton, Chairman, California Log Cabin.

May 20, 2008

Orange County Caucus Endorses for June Primary

Posted by Christopher Gilbertson at 9:25 am .
Filed under: Miscellany

The Orange County Log Cabin Republican Caucus approved the following endorsements for the June Primary.

Our endorsements were based more on their Republican credentials and support from others. They were NOT based on their views on gay or lesbian issues.  There is nothing a local elected official can do on these issues so it is not a factor in our decisions.

SUPERIOR COURT JUDGE

Office No. 4: Nick Thompson

Office No. 8: Jon Fish

Office No.12: Kermit Marsh

Office No. 25: John Nho Trong Nguyen

Board of Education

Area 1: Felix Rocha, Jr.

Area 3: Ken L. Williams

Capistrano School Board

Ken Maddox

ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS

1st District: Janet Nguyen

3rd District: Bill Campbell

SERRANO WATER DISTRICT

District 1: Richard A. Freschi

ORANGE COUNTY REPUBLICAN CENTRAL COMMITTEE

60th AD: John Karczynski (Log Cabin Republican Member)

67th AD: Scott Baugh

68th AD: Kermit Marsh, Ed Royce, Sr.

69th AD: No recommendation

70th AD: Linda Ackerman, Mary Young

71st AD: Todd Spitzer

72nd AD: No recommendation

73rd AD: Nancy Padberg

ANAHEIM CITY COUNCIL (Not on the ballot until November but he’s a Log Cabin Republicans Member)

John Karczynski